Busted Tories

Question Time tonight: strange to see Melanie Phillips, however grudgingly, agreeing with Gordon Brown’s handling of the economic stramash.

It struck me, watching Tory frontbencher Phillip Hammond (no, I’m not sure who he is either) flounder, that the public are being more sophisticated than the Tories here.

Yes, we know Brown could have handled the economy better. No, we don’t believe that he, and he alone, was the architect of the global meltdown.

But the real issue is not how we got here but how we get out of here. As Cameron and Osbourne wade through treacle trying to find a coherent response Brown’s way looks ever more appealing.

Because, for all their bluster, it looks right now as if David and George were the only people in the country who actually believed the Prime Minister when he told us that he’d abolished boom and bust.

Brown’s Bubble Bounces On

Gordon Brown: Forever Blowing Bubbles?

Much as predictions can be dangerous territory: It now looks as if Labour have held on in the Glenrothes by election.

Couple of things if this is confirmed. It now seems clear that Brown will lead Labour into the next election. When? Sooner rather than later. Spring? Possibly.

Has some of the shine gone off Mr Salmond’s Scottish Government? These are strange times when both Brown and Salmond go into these by elections as leaders of governments. Brown’s come out on top this time. A long term trend? I have my doubts if, in Westminster elections, the SNP can keep up the momentum of Holyrood.

The Scottish Labour Party is not forgiven, far from it, but might Labour still be the overwhelming choice of Scotland at Westminster? Possibly.

This is a good result for Brown and Labour: A by election win at this stage in a third term government with an unelected Prime Minister at a time of global catastrophe is an achievement. And it will further dent David Cameron’s confidence.

As I write Nicola Sturgeon is turning cartwheels on BBC 2 trying to rewrite the history of this by election campaign. There is no doubt that Salmond thought he could win this. Talk of slashed majorities is not a comfort.

Salmond’s honeymoon is now over. He’ll need now to reframe the debate. Where to go? He’s unlikely to look at this result and gird his loins in preparation for pushing the independence agenda forward.

Far from striking a blow against the union the people of Glenrothes have pumped a little more air into that old Brown bubble. They’ve also delivered a kick in the guts to Salmond. His arc of prosperity rhetoric is dead. He no longer acts as a conduit for protest votes because he’s in power himself.

There also appears to be no sign of any lift in the Tory vote. That might be the good news for the Nats. If Cameron does win big at the next election then Scotland will not only feel disenfranchised but he may find some unlikely allies in an England centric Tory Party.

One thing is clear: Tonight’s result will have further shifted Cameron and Salmond from their comfort zones. And that ridiculous grin of Gordon’s might just be becoming ever more genuine.

The Clock Is Ticking

A few hours to go. By this time tomorrow we should know if Barack Obama is to become the next president of the United States.

I tend to be of the opinion, despite all the talk of this being a global election, that we should keep our noses out of the democratic processes of other countries.

This possibly applies especially to us Brits who often slip into insufferable superiority when we laugh at politicians from elsewhere. On this occasion we’re on even thinner ground because we’re sorely in need of figure like Obama to breathe some life into our own grassroots.

In saying that though I’m desperate to see Obama win. For a lot of reasons.

Firstly the reality of a black president seems so close now, unbelievably close, and I really didn’t think that would happen so quickly. Looking at Britain I wonder if we have a society, an electorate, ready for an achievement of that magnitude.

I personally feel that Obama’s big win came over Clinton. I don’t find McCain convincing – from what I see from over here much of his reputation is based on the past. This time round I think he’s been stilted and unprepared for the freshness his opponent has brought to the campaign.

The cynical misjudgement that led him to give Sarah Palin a place on the ticket might, when the final votes have been counted, be seen as the disastrous final act in a long political career. Had even met her? And does he really want to ride to the presidency beholden to the people who represent her natural constituency?

And, of course, there are benefits to the world focus on the election. Obama can enthuse people across the globe. He might be handed an opportunity that looked impossible two years ago: A leader of America who has both the intent and goodwill to make positive change elsewhere. A leader of the free world that we can all look to for leadership. That would be refreshing.

But expectation can go horribly pear shaped. An American president has very little time to actually be president, the electorate are always looming large in the Oval Office.

The inexperience that has actually become an asset in the campaign could still be shown to be a critical failing in office.

Then there are the practical problems. An Obama presidency is going to have a lot of opponents, swathes of the population will feel disenfranchised and they have the potential to be far more vocal and disruptive than the forgotten souls who felt Dubya had stolen the White House.

And, inescapably, there is an American economy built on sand, cowering from whatever tsunami will hit next. That might not make change impossible but it could make it unpleasant.

The weight of expectation can also weigh heavily, when you represent people’s dreams the adulation can quickly turn to bitterness.

But who goes for this job expecting an easy ride? My prediction is a close win for Obama, I think closer than many people expect,  and it will be nice to simply enjoy that for a time.  The nightmare might start soon enough, why don’t we just savour the dreams for now?

Election Fever

The US election, the Glenrothes by election and, more importantly, the Edinburgh council by election for the Forth seat.

A big week all in all.

I was treated to a miniscule insight into how hard it must be for both McCain and Obama in Cambridge the other day.

Having a quiet drink in The Anchor, overlooking the ever peaceful Cam, my tranquility, indeed the tranquility of everyone in every pub within three streets, was shattered by the kind of American who I thought had been consigned to the dustbin of stereotype history.

Loud, proud and badly dressed our Sherman Tank buddy was in the mood for a rant. His general point was that he and his kin were disenfranchised and had been since 2000. The reason for this jettisoning was, and I’m not making this up, that George W Bush was a left wing president elected thanks to a liberal conspiracy in Florida.

I assumed that he had been visiting the American cemetery nearby. Was this, I wondered, why so many people had travelled so far to fight against fascism? Well, maybe, they did die to preserve freedom of speech. Too often, of course, freedom of speech today is used as an excuse for ignorance.

English Cricket All Out

Caught in the headlights of the Indian Premier League, stunned by a changing game that was rapidly spinning out of their control, the English Cricket Board brought this debacle on themselves.

You might call it hubris but really the players were the victims of the administrators who need to urgently shake themselves out of their daze and do something to pump some life to the game in Britian.

An American ringmaster’s circus on a paradise island was never going to be the answer.